Appendix F. Risk Register and Scenario Stress-test Outline

Appendix F. Risk Register and Scenario Stress-test Outline

Geographic Market Entry Playbook 2D

Keep the register small, trend-based, trigger-driven. Review top risks weekly; full set monthly.

  • Risk register entry template (copy per risk)

    • ID: ______

    • Risk family: ☐ Strategic ☐ Operational ☐ Regulatory/Compliance ☐ Reputational

    • Risk statement (cause → effect → mechanism): “If ______, then ______, because ______.”

    • Owner (single role): ______

    • Stage: ☐ Pre-launch ☐ 0–90 days ☐ Scale

    • Likelihood: ☐ L ☐ M ☐ H (evidence note: ____________)

    • Impact ratings:

      • Cash: ☐ L ☐ M ☐ H

      • Compliance: ☐ L ☐ M ☐ H

      • Trust: ☐ L ☐ M ☐ H

      • Timeline: ☐ L ☐ M ☐ H

    • Leading indicators (metric/signal + cadence + source): ____________________

    • Trigger threshold (activates response): ____________________

    • Mitigations:

      • Prevent: ____________________

      • Detect: ____________________

      • Respond: ____________________

      • Recover: ____________________

    • Status: ☐ Open ☐ Mitigating ☐ Contained ☐ Closed

    • Trend since last review: ☐ Improving ☐ Stable ☐ Worsening

    • Stop-loss link (if applicable): ____________________

    • Residual risk after mitigation: ____________________

    Stop-loss trigger mini-list (copy into steering agenda)

    • Integrity: credible bribery/sanctions exposure or deliberate control bypass → pause and investigate immediately

    • Economics: net price below floor or negative unit contribution beyond ramp window → reset scope and pricing

    • Cash: DSO/working capital pushes burn beyond funded runway → freeze discretionary spend; tighten terms

    • Service: repeated SLA breaches → onboarding pause until stability returns

    Scenario stress-test outline (copy per shock)

    • Shock event: ____________________

    • Assumptions impacted (choose): cycle time / net price / DSO / approvals / capacity / FX / vendor performance

    • Early warning signals: ____________________

    • Modeled impact:

      • Timeline slip: ____ weeks

      • Margin or cash delta: $____

      • Service impact: ____________________

    • Pre-approved response (pick one or more): scope narrow / hiring pause / onboarding freeze / vendor switch / credit tighten

    • Communications plan (owners):

      • Customer message owner: ______

      • Partner message owner: ______

      • Regulator message owner: ______

    • Residual risk after response: ____________________

    • Exit or pivot trigger: ____________________

    Closure rule: close only when the control is embedded in workflow, evidence exists, and recurrence would be detected quickly.

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