Appendix C. Market Model Assumptions Library

Confidence rating standard

• High (H): supported by in-country primary data (quotes/contracts/invoices) or authoritative local sources

   

• Medium (M): supported by credible proxies (adjacent markets, comparable segments, triangulated research)

   

• Low (L): assumption-heavy; used only for sizing; must be validated fast

   

Assumptions list (copy into your model’s “inputs” section)

A1. Qualified pipeline coverage

• Default range: 2.5×–4.0×

   

• Point estimate: ____

   

• Confidence: ____

   

• Validate fast: CRM stage discipline + 4-week trend

   

A2. Win rate (qualified → closed), enterprise

• Default range: 15%–35%

   

• Point estimate: ____

   

• Confidence: ____

   

• Validate fast: stage conversion by segment/use case

   

A3. Sales cycle (first deal), enterprise

• Default range: 60–180 days

   

• Point estimate: ____

   

• Confidence: ____

   

• Validate fast: deal diary (time-in-stage + blockers)

   

A4. Discount to list

• Default range: 10%–25%

   

• Point estimate: ____

   

• Confidence: ____

   

• Validate fast: live quote tests + deal desk logs

   

A5. Channel margin (if used)

• Default range: 15%–35%

   

• Point estimate: ____

   

• Confidence: ____

   

• Validate fast: partner term sheets + margin walk

   

A6. Pilot-to-paid conversion

• Default range: 40%–70%

   

• Point estimate: ____

   

• Confidence: ____

   

• Validate fast: pilots with written success criteria

   

A7. Gross retention (annual)

• Default range: 80%–95%

   

• Point estimate: ____

   

• Confidence: ____

   

• Validate fast: cohort adoption + renewal intent signals

   

A8. Net revenue retention (annual)

• Default range: 95%–125%

   

• Point estimate: ____

   

• Confidence: ____

   

• Validate fast: attach plan + early expansion indicators

   

B1. Onboarding time-to-value

• Default range: 1–6 weeks (light) / 6–16 weeks (complex)

   

• Point estimate: ____

   

• Confidence: ____

   

• Validate fast: pilot time tracking + exceptions log

   

B2. Support load per customer (early)

• Default range: 1.2–2.5 tickets/month

   

• Point estimate: ____

   

• Confidence: ____

   

• Validate fast: ticketing baseline + post-fix trend

   

B3. Implementation capacity

• Default range: ____ onboardings per FTE per month

   

• Point estimate: ____

   

• Confidence: ____

   

• Validate fast: runbook time studies + utilization tracking

   

C1. DSO (B2B)

• Default range: 30–75 days

   

• Point estimate: ____

   

• Confidence: ____

   

• Validate fast: term sheets + first 10 invoices aging

   

C2. Invoice dispute rate (early)

• Default range: 2%–8%

   

• Point estimate: ____

   

• Confidence: ____

   

• Validate fast: root-cause of rejects; target <2%

   

C3. DPO

• Default range: 30–60 days

   

• Point estimate: ____

   

• Confidence: ____

   

• Validate fast: vendor contracts + payment runs

   

C4. Inventory days (if physical)

• Default range: 30–120 days

   

• Point estimate: ____

   

• Confidence: ____

   

• Validate fast: lead times + customs variance

   

D1. FX sensitivity

• Default range: ____% of cost/revenue in local currency

   

• Point estimate: ____

   

• Confidence: ____

   

• Validate fast: exposure map + hedging feasibility check

   

How to use this library in practice

• Pick the unit: define the unit economics unit (account/order/site) before setting assumptions.

   

• Lock definitions: define “discount,” “net price,” “qualified pipeline,” and “time-to-value” once.

   

• Promote assumptions to tests: each low-confidence Tier 1 assumption needs a 30–90 day validation plan + owner.