Umbrex is pleased to welcome Ziad Nasrallah with High Impact Advisors. Ziad brings in 15+ year of experience in top tier strategy consulting and private equity companies in the Middle East. He has extensive experience in performance improvement, turnarounds, restructurings, providing strategic and financial advisory to PE funds, family groups and conglomerates; with hands-on experience in retail and distribution, manufacturing, transportation and logistics, money transfer and B2B services. Prior to founding High Impact Advisors, Ziad was Managing Director of the Portfolio Team at GrowthGate Capital, a regional private equity firm and prior to that was VP within the Private Equity team of The National Investor. Ziad started his career at Bain & Co.
Martin Pergler shares a couple of files on understanding COVID-19 contagion dynamics, and some of the tradeoffs of managing spread vs long term social/economic impact.
People seem to be increasingly internalizing and accepting efforts prudentially required to slow down COVID-19s exponential infection rates. And hopefully we’ll converge even more from the poles of “barricade ourselves behind hoarded toilet paper” and “what me worry, I don’t see a problem yet” behaviour. However, given differences in, and evolution over time of, testing and reporting around the world, we also need to get ahead of monitoring the evolution of the outbreak and its containment in different geographies. We’ve all seen the “buy time to flatten the curve” graphic many times by now, but I think we all hope we can minimize the area under the curve, not just flatten it.
With this in mind, I’m happy to see a paper on statistical time series modeling applied to localized contagion dynamics cross my desk, from Italy no less! Pretty technical in nature, and frankly there isn’t truly enough data to draw any actionable conclusions yet, but we’re going to need analysis of this type to be able to extrapolate sensibly going forward, and to judge to what extent containment approaches — including different intensities of social distancing — are working.
Read the full article, Coronavirus: monitoring change in contagion dynamics, and access links to the files on the Balanced Risk Strategies website.