As we move towards the end of the pandemic and a surge in business, Geoff Wilson provides a post for leaders to help navigate the next economic journey.
We are in a world of opportunity and hurt. Demand is high, spirits (and prices) are up, and supply is constrained. What’s a leader to do?
When I was a young man I learned microeconomics on the back of a simple diagram with two lines…one for demand (always downward sloping) and one for supply (this one goes up).
Turns out, the microeconomists were right. Mostly.
We are living in a fever dream at the moment. It comes with the pleasure fog of rising demand for…well…everything as people regain the confidence that they can interact and transact with one another without threatening lives. It also comes with the tormenting nightmare of not being able to hire, source, or build the products and services that they need.
There’s plenty of blame to go around. The most plausible explanation is that we are simply mired in the midst of a massive supply chain bullwhip that is synchronized around the world for once. As positive and negative information trickles out across industry chains, individuals firms attempt to adjust…and they do so badly.
Add the labor-market distortions brought by extended unemployment benefits, extended school and family support organization closures, fear of the unknowns around coronavirus reoccurrence, and general inflation; and you have a multi-faceted political and commercial game that would make George R. R. Martin blush.
But all of this is couched, at least for the moment, within a massive environment of opportunity. Demand is popping for most of the economy, and poised to pop for much of the rest.
So (as I’m often wont to ask), what’s a leader to do?
Here are a few ideas.
Key points include:
- Prioritizing the opportunity
- Time to innovate
- Explore new supply chain structures and mechanisms
Read the full article, Revenge of the Microeconomist in the Real World, on WilsonGrowthPartners.com.
Umbrex is pleased to welcome Fabio Olivi. After graduation, Fabio started working in Large Consumer market industry with Companies like Procter&Gamble and Colgate Palmolive. Remained 4 years in this Industry, he then moved in the Management Consulting, having worked in Accenture (2 years, mainly Banking and Financial), KPMG Business Advisory (10 years, mainly Manufacturing) and finally in Bain&Company, where he remained for 4-5 years (Telco).
In all of those years of Consulting, he specialized in Supply Chain, Procurement organization, Organization, whie in Bain&Company he specialized mainly in Business Transformation projects and support for Industrial Plans, Due Diligence and CEO support for major business initiatives. Over last 10 years I act as Independent with ex Mc Kinsey in mostly Manufacturing projects, also running a personal business in Non-Performing-Loans industry.
Umbrex is pleased to welcome Joy Fairbanks with Fairbanks Venture Advisors. Joy is an experienced founder, investment evaluator, and advisor to high growth, innovative companies across sectors. Prior to forming her own boutique advisory, she served clients at LEK Consulting and Mitchell Madison Group where she was an engagement manager.
Joy has extensive experience advising companies across geographies from M&A and strategic planning to process improvement and supply chain management. She advises on business modeling, customer discovery, MVPs/prototyping, product/market fit, go to market strategy, fundraising/investor presentations, partnerships, operations, and financial forecasting.
Joy is an active advisor across accelerators and university startup communities including: Blackstone Launchpad (powered by Techstars), Venture Out, Inventor to Founders (I2F) Cyber NYC, StartEd’s NYU New Media Lab, Stanford University’s Lean Launchpad, and Columbia University’s Entrepreneurship Design Studio.
Joy is open to collaborating on projects of various types, particularly those that make an impact on people, markets, and the planet.
Umbrex is pleased to welcome Manfred Gamauf with Gamauf & Co. Manfred spent 5 years as consultant in the procurement, supply chain & and operations practice at McKinsey and has been running his own consulting firm on procurement strategy, supply chain management and operations since 2013. Prior to McKinsey, Manfred spent 5 years as global procurement manager in the system integration and procurement organization with IBM in Europe and the US. After McKinsey, Manfred led global operations excellence organizations and served as Chief Procurement Officer for White & Case LLP in New York, Mondi Group, and KPN (Royal Dutch Telecom) in Europe. Manfred has particular experience in strategic sourcing, negotiations, turnaround, cost reduction, reorganization and digital transformations projects, serves as interim CPO and private equity advisor, and has led procurement organization up to 350 people.
Manfred lives in Vienna, Austria and loves to collaborate on strategic sourcing, supply chain and operations projects and on any form off negotiations.
Umbrex is pleased to welcome Eugenio Iguzquiza. Eugenio is a seasoned strategy and operations professional experienced in multinational environments, cross-functional teams and matrix organisations with a focus on the Consumer Goods and Food & Beverages sectors.
Eugenio worked 5 years in management consulting as a Senior Associate for Booz & Company followed by operations/commercial strategy roles with Nestlé. Following a stint in UBS investment banking, he most recently worked at the UK’s leading bottling and beverages company BRITVIC PLC where he was responsible for developing industrial strategies across all business units and leading multidisciplinary teams in the implementation of supply chain programs globally. He is also active as an interim manager for Blue Chip and SME clients.
Eugenio has a background in Mechanical and Industrial Engineering from Ecole Centrale de Marseille and an MBA from INSEAD. He is fluent in Spanish, French and English.
Eugenio is happy to collaborate on projects involving operations and supply chain for manufacturing industries across Europe.
Mohannad H. Gomaa shares succinct recommendations from leading practices on developing a continuity plan for a supply chain.
Key thoughts and advice to update your current Supply Chain Continuity Plan (SCCP)
Business Impact Analysis:
External Suppliers and Customers:
Send questionnaires to your 1xxx+ suppliers and service providers to see how their operations are adjusting and discuss capacity availability/pricing/contract FM. Conduct meetings on key risk orders/SKUs
Communicate with your customers on key issues and ways to collaborate to fulfill orders and (investment/capacity) support needed. There are lessons learned from Toyota and others on how their supply chain network worked together during suppliers’ emergency shutdowns
Additional steps identified include:
- Recovery strategies
- Plan deployment
- Test procedures
Read the full article, Key thoughts and advice to update your current Supply Chain Continuity Plan (SCCP), on LinkedIn.
Carlos Castelan’s company blog provides five questions to help you think about and prepare for the future post COVID-19.
To say that 2020 has been a challenging year for everyone is an understatement. The last six months have brought an enormity of difficulties and change to both the world of retail and the global population. While we don’t have the fabled Sports Almanac to identify future results, we wanted to share five questions that we have used with our clients to help plan for the second half of the year:
1: How are you supporting your current employees and remaining agile to meet new opportunities?
COVID-19 has disrupted our lives and added challenges from homeschooling young children to caring for family members. This is no ordinary time and it is also an extraordinary opportunity for leaders to demonstrate empathy for what is happening in their team’s lives.
It’s imperative to demonstrate to all employees that people come first and that their whole lives are welcome at work regardless of whether the impacts are visible. This can take the form of extending certain benefits to help manage through those challenges such as flexible work schedules, childcare reimbursements, and family care leave. It means providing adequate sick leave and income stability to those battling the virus to ensure their recovery and the safety of their colleagues. Target, for example, temporarily raised wages, provided free backup childcare for loved ones, and up to 30 days of paid leave for team members 65 or older, pregnant, or with underlying medical conditions.
This is also a critical moment to be agile to meet new opportunities. Essential businesses are having to flex up to meet a surge in demand. How can they quickly and safely identify and onboard talent? As retailers accelerate digital transformation initiatives like online ordering and curbside fulfillment, how can they shift resources to accelerate and deliver on those initiatives? Nowhere was this more critical than Walmart, the nation’s largest grocer, which has aggressively leaned into curbside pickup. To rapidly hire over 150,000 team members, they launched an expedited recruitment process and partnered with companies across restaurants, hospitality, and retail that had furloughed workers, in some cases going from application to offer within 24 hours.
The remaining four questions explore:
- Customer retention and relationships
- Impact on your industry and and competitors
- Impact on suppliers and supply chain
- Lower revenue
Read the full article, Back to the future: five questions to help you jump ahead in 2020, on the Navio Group website.
Eric Hiller provides a short introductory article and a link to a forthcoming webinar on Thursday, May 28, 2020, that explains how to keep a supply chain up and running during COVID-19 and into the future.
The old world…
So, you had a supply chain, and you thought it was pretty “optimized.”
Yeah, you could improve it here and there, but you had wrung out 95%+ of the addressable waste.
To really make progress, you would need to make MAJOR changes (new suppliers, locations, etc.), but there just is always other stuff to do.
The new world…
Then Corona happens!!!!
Your tidy and luxurious platform is now burning.
Now you have no choice but to DO SOMETHING different.
Cost was really important and you thought delivery and quality were assured.
Now delivery is a huge problem (maybe quality too.)
The future world…
What do you do short term? What do you set up in the future to stop this from happening again?
Read the article, Corona Supply Chain Blues — what to do about cost, when delivery is a problem, and find links to the webinar on the Hiller and Associates website.
Eric Hiller unrolls a few facts behind the need to hoard toilet paper (TP) as he shares his knowledge on the supply chain in this article recently published on MarketWatch.
One of the bizarre phenomena that we have been experiencing in the United States during the visit of our unfriendly visitor from Wuhan, the SARS-COV-2 virus which causes COVID-19 disease, is the strange behavior of people to irrationally hoard toilet paper (TP). I admit, this is one thing that I did not expect, nor did I expect it to go on for so long. I told my wife two to three weeks ago that this would not be a problem, because of the reasons that will be discussed in this article. But I admit, so far this problem has not resolved itself.
I feel pretty competent to talk on this subject, not only because I know the product so intimately, but also because I spent a summer at the East River plant of Procter & Gamble in Green Bay, Wisconsin making TP. I was interning as an undergraduate as a process engineer implementing statistical process control and machine center lining (exciting stuff… yes, I know). It just so happened that I was working on the “converting” floor for Charmin, Charmin Ultra, and Banner toilet paper. This, where you take finished rolls, that is the size the Jolly Green Giant must use (maybe 12 feet tall and 8 feet in diameter, weighing a couple of thousand pounds), and progressively unroll and cut them up until they end up in cases shipping to your friendly grocery store or another outlet.
So, when it comes to TP, I know my… stuff.
Facts included in this article:
- The US supply chain
- Why people are hoarding TP
- The cure for TP shortage
Read the full article, Three Sheets to the Wind, on the MarketWatch website.