In this article, Barry Horwitz highlights the value of risk and how to track trends that may foreshadow problems. In the early weeks of March, many in the tech sector were surprised and distressed by the sudden collapse of a once-great institution, Silicon Valley Bank (SVB). Founded in 1983, it was the 16th largest bank in the US and was a very active and positive influence on the technology sector — in Silicon Valley, of course, but also significantly in…

In this article, Martin Pergler explains why timing is so important when applying risk insights to strategic decision-making. Why timing is everything when it comes to effective risk management There is much discussion over how institutions should do risk management. In addition to who should be doing it, what is it (risk management… even risk itself) and why it is necessary. Much less is said about when to do risk management. And yet timing is everything. Institutions that mistime their…

Umbrex is pleased to welcome Mallika Adarkar with MECE Matters. Mallika has 18+ years of consulting experience on growth strategy, operations, risk management and data analytics. Before launching her advisory business, she was at McKinsey & Company and PwC in their financial services practices. Her clients have included bulge bracket banks, asset managers and life insurance companies. Mallika has an MBA from Columbia Business School, an MS in Information Systems from Drexel University and a BTech in Computer Science and…

In this article, Joy Fairbanks shares a conversation with Michael Michael Margolis, UX Research Partner at GV (Google Ventures), on using UX research to mitigate risk on new ventures. How can you find your TAM and validate your product-market fit if you don’t know who your bulls eye customers are?  UX research is a way to accelerate the learning curve of startups and derisk the investment. This week my student founders and I had the pleasure of welcoming Michael Margolis,…

In this concise and timeless post, Amanda Setili shares a few thoughts on uncertainty and risk. Some of our kiteboarding friends stayed, to take advantage of the pre-hurricane wind. Rob and I made the decision to evacuate with mom to a hotel in the small town of Waycross, GA. This experience brought me to consider how each of us thinks differently about risk and uncertainty. I’ve noticed that people who are comfortable dealing with uncertainty are more successful in the…

Davide Gronchi shares an article on how to approach risk mitigation. Whilst in the middle of a heavy and unexpected crisis, company leaders are requested to keep looking far ahead and shape the future of their company by (re-)designing the strategy and how to implement it. Current times are full of worries and threads, every day are more negative than positive news that capture our attention. How to concentrate on our business, sailing in calm waters and heading to a…

Martin Pergler shares an article on risk management that was recently published in StrategicRiskEurope.com. Why timing is everything when it comes to effective risk management In the second of our new #ChangingRisk ThinkTank series, Martin Pergler explains why timing is so important when applying risk insights to strategic decision-making. There is much discussion over how institutions should do risk management. In addition to who should be doing it, what is it (risk management… even risk itself) and why it is…

Alistair Hodgett shares an article that dives into an ongoing concern: the role of culture in managing national risk.  Public Policy, the independent think tank, have published an important piece of research into the structures and processes that allow countries to identify, analyse and mitigate complex threats and potentially adverse developments. Intended to contribute to the strengthening of Ireland’s national risk management strategy, a summary and a download of the full report are available here.  Largely missing from the scope…

Boris Galonske shares an article that offers guidance on how to navigate turbulent markets. Managing commodity economics and exposures protecting company financials and decreasing vulnerability The war in the Ukraine has caused turmoil not only in energy markets but also in broader commodity markets. As such not only companies’ financials are at stake, structural risk exposures and vulnerabilities have surfaced. What to expect … A new normal … In February 2022 the war in the Ukraine started adding another element…

Amanda Setili shares an experience and a reminder on the importance of preparing for unseen threats in business. We were kiteboarding last weekend off Sullivan’s Island, near Charleston. The wind was blowing hard, over 20 mph, and I was having a great time. Three hours into my session, I was jumping near a sandbar, because the water was so smooth and beautiful there. In other words, I was intentionally close to the sandbar and thinking that it was safe to…

With new COVID strains popping up and a future that holds new and evolving viruses, Martin Pergler’s post on how epidemiologists measure the severity of a pandemic may be useful. We all look at our national and local COVID infection counts. But to really measure the pandemic’s pulse, epidemiologists monitor a number called Rt and do their best to wrest it below 1. What is Rt, how does it work, why do we care, and what are its limitations? What…

With new COVID strains popping up and a future that holds new and evolving viruses, Martin Pergler’s post on how epidemiologists measure the severity of a pandemic may be useful. We all look at our national and local COVID infection counts. But to really measure the pandemic’s pulse, epidemiologists monitor a number called Rt and do their best to wrest it below 1. What is Rt, how does it work, why do we care, and what are its limitations? What…

Rahul Bhargava shares an article on the benefits of scenario planning to mitigate risk and combat uncertainties. Scenario Planning has almost become a prerequisite for companies to combat any or all future uncertainties— or more conveniently; a risk mitigating device to be precise which is by and large used by organisations to avoid perilous situations as a result of sloppy underpinnings. With a correct analysis of basic trends and uncertainties your business can ascend impediments and steer clear on the…

Martin Pergler taps into Wordle to illustrate how to apply risk management thinking. Friday’s Wordle (WATCH) provided a great example of applying risk management thinking, alongside strategy and adaptive decision-making. Helping institutions navigate the interplay of these topics is my bread and butter, so I enjoyed seeing it play out so clearly in a game. Of course every Wordler’s path varies, but is seems many of us got most of the end of the word reasonably quickly, but with perilously…

Martin Pergler shares an article on risk management that was recently published in StrategicRiskEurope.com.  Why timing is everything when it comes to effective risk management In the second of our new #ChangingRisk ThinkTank series, Martin Pergler explains why timing is so important when applying risk insights to strategic decision-making. There is much discussion over how institutions should do risk management. In addition to who should be doing it, what is it (risk management… even risk itself) and why it is…

Peet van Biljon shares an article on managing risk and uncertainty for the entrepreneur.  Uncertainty in all its forms is a constant companion of the entrepreneur. How well entrepreneurs manage multiple risks and uncertainties determines the success or failure of their new offerings and businesses, and whether their investors will make or lose money. Good entrepreneurs understand the crucial interplay between risk, uncertainty and innovation, and use the best techniques to manage or even harness the inherent uncertainty involved in…

Amanda Setili shares a concise post on the perception of risk and how it affects the team.  Karen perceives that competitors are moving very quickly, so she feels the leadership team has no option but to be even more aggressive. Jim sees the competitors as foolhardy, so he wants to take a slow and steady path while the competition defeats themselves. Curt keeps waffling back and forth; he wants to pump up revenue growth, but consistently balks at the price…

  In this post, Amanda Setili explains why taking risks may be the safest strategy. The world is always changing, but lately the changes have felt faster and more extreme. In times like these, your ability to manage risk and uncertainty can give you a huge competitive advantage. To put this another way, in volatile times, taking on too little risk is dangerous. You may be left in the dust as competitors invest in new arenas that you considered too…

  Davide Gronchi shares an article on risk mitigation that includes his pragmatic method designed to drive out ‘failure-mode and effects analysis’ designed by the U.S. military in the 1940s.  Whilst in the middle of an heavy and unexpected crisis, company leaders are requested to keep looking far ahead and shape the future of their company by (re-)designing the strategy and how to implement it. Current times are full of worries and threads, every day are more negative than positive…

Umbrex is pleased to welcome Yacine Berdjeghloul with Wolfinance Consulting.  Yacine is a bright Risk professional with a strong academic background and technical experience in modelling & coding. He has a high interest in solving complex issues, is self-motivated and entrepreneurial. He was among the top 5% of his Bachelor’s and in his previous job was presented the GE Award for “Inclusiveness” and “Expertise”. Alongside his technical capability, Yacine is an excellent communicator with a natural ability to establish rapport….

  Aneta Key shares a short but informative video and the first in a series on the topic of sizing up the situation for strategic decision-making. Key points include: Speed Severity Uncertainty Watch the full series, Sizing up the Situation, on AedeaPartners.com.   …

  Forbes published an article from Stephen Wunker that explores how we can leverage lessons learned from COVID-19 to develop, improve, and use scenario planning.  Leading up to 2020, executives were already grappling with rising disruptive technologies, changing business models, and rivals emerging from unexpected places. Throw in a global pandemic, and the future seems about as predictable as a game of Rock, Paper, Scissors with a hundred hands. While some were poised to respond to the turbulence that coronavirus…

Umbrex is pleased to welcome Michael Z Guterbock.  Michael worked for a decade in disaster preparedness and global health for the Assistant Secretary of Preparedness and Response (ASPR) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Michael currently consults with Booz Allen Hamilton as a country risk manager. Prior to his consulting and government career, Michael worked for the private sector in the international development space. He is pursuing his Doctorate in International Affairs from Johns Hopkin University’s School…

  Martin Pergler shares an article that explores risk appetite and how to address it as we move into phase two of COVID-19.  Act I of COVID response has been about broad societal measures to stop the pandemic from overwhelming the health system, e.g. physical distancing, pausing the economy, cutting travel; all to slow exponential spread. While Act I isn’t over, it’s increasingly clear a long Act II, balancing reopening and personal freedoms with stubbornly continuing COVID risk, will follow….

  Vik Muktavaram applies a few principles of risk management to understand why COVID-19 grew from a risk to a pandemic.  As the federal government finally took the first decisive step in stemming the outbreak of COVID-19 in the US, the images of serpentine lines of arriving international passengers at airports waiting for immigration and screening for COVID-19 coronavirus ubiquitous online and in print. Presumably, the rationale for the screening was that these arriving passengers represented a high-risk cohort. Yet,…

  When Kaihan Krippendorff found his calendar clear due to COVID-19 cancellations, he, in collaboration with his team, decided to launch the Reimagine the Future summit. This article is a summary of all 47 sessions, reviewed recordings, and in-depth content analysis of the session transcriptions and audience dialogue from today’s most influential business thinkers who took part in the summit.    In March, as the reality of COVID-19 started taking hold, when my team received our fifth request in one day…

  Davide Gronchi provides a pragmatic approach to risk mitigation and shares a method he uses that was invented by the US military in the late 1940s: FMEA (Failure Mode and Effects Analysis) to assess risk under three lenses.  Whilst in the middle of a heavy and unexpected crisis, company leaders are requested to keep looking far ahead and shape the future of their company by (re-)designing the strategy and how to implement it. Current times are full of worries…

  James Bowen takes a moment to muse on risk expectations and market values.   Today I read Christopher Schelling’s insightful article in Institutional Investor, “The Dust Bowl Ravaged 1930s America: Coronavirus is Today’s Equivalent.” It led me to thinking about risk, and in particular how a risk no one considered at all a little over a month ago has emerged to destroy trillions of dollars of value — perhaps not in percentage terms, but certainly in dollar terms the…

  Vik Muktavaram recently published an article that evaluates the current crisis through four approaches of risk management. “As the federal government finally took the first decisive step in stemming the outbreak of COVID-19 in the US, the images of serpentine lines of arriving international passengers at airports waiting for immigration and screening for COVID-19 coronavirus ubiquitous online and in print. Presumably, the rationale for the screening was that these arriving passengers represented a high-risk cohort. Yet, the long, crowded…

There are four good reasons for holding on to a cash-based economy. Tobias Baer reveals the hidden economic benefits and explains why cash is still king. Do we still need cash? More and more stores are going cashless. A whole country—Sweden—is intent on becoming the world’s first cashless nation in 2023. The attraction is the savings from avoiding the substantial handling costs of cash. In many places, increasing numbers of consumers have stopped carrying wallets because their phones have become viable…