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With new COVID strains popping up and a future that holds new and evolving viruses, Martin Pergler’s post on how epidemiologists measure the severity of a pandemic may be useful. We all look at our national and local COVID infection counts. But to really measure the pandemic’s pulse, epidemiologists monitor a number called Rt and do their best to wrest it below 1. What is Rt, how does it work, why do we care, and what are its limitations? What…
With new COVID strains popping up and a future that holds new and evolving viruses, Martin Pergler’s post on how epidemiologists measure the severity of a pandemic may be useful. We all look at our national and local COVID infection counts. But to really measure the pandemic’s pulse, epidemiologists monitor a number called Rt and do their best to wrest it below 1. What is Rt, how does it work, why do we care, and what are its limitations? What…
Martin Pergler taps into Wordle to illustrate how to apply risk management thinking. Friday’s Wordle (WATCH) provided a great example of applying risk management thinking, alongside strategy and adaptive decision-making. Helping institutions navigate the interplay of these topics is my bread and butter, so I enjoyed seeing it play out so clearly in a game. Of course every Wordler’s path varies, but is seems many of us got most of the end of the word reasonably quickly, but with perilously…
Martin Pergler shares an article that explains why it’s time for governments to start properly risk managing their COVID-19 crisis response. Colleen M. Flood FRSC, FCAHS, is the Director of the Centre for Health Law, Policy and Ethics and University Research Chair at the University of Ottawa. Martin Pergler is Principal at Balanced Risk Strategies, an international consultancy based in Ottawa specializing in risk management and decisions under uncertainty. Let’s review the past seven weeks, since the Omicron variant was…
Martin Pergler shares an article on risk management that was recently published in StrategicRiskEurope.com.  Why timing is everything when it comes to effective risk management In the second of our new #ChangingRisk ThinkTank series, Martin Pergler explains why timing is so important when applying risk insights to strategic decision-making. There is much discussion over how institutions should do risk management. In addition to who should be doing it, what is it (risk management… even risk itself) and why it is…
  Martin Pergler shares an article that explores risk appetite and how to address it as we move into phase two of COVID-19.  Act I of COVID response has been about broad societal measures to stop the pandemic from overwhelming the health system, e.g. physical distancing, pausing the economy, cutting travel; all to slow exponential spread. While Act I isn’t over, it’s increasingly clear a long Act II, balancing reopening and personal freedoms with stubbornly continuing COVID risk, will follow….
  Martin Pergler summarizes the assessment of comparative risk levels from two recent press articles and compares them to simple-minded risk assessments to identify the value of the information.  As we gingerly try to “unfreeze” economic and social activity after this first wave of COVID, there’s a lot of prognostication what formerly normal activities are more or less risky. Two recent U.S. press articles thoughtfully assess comparative risk levels, but also fall into several pretty typical risk assessment traps. What…
  Martin Pergler shares a couple of files on understanding COVID-19 contagion dynamics, and some of the tradeoffs of managing spread vs long term social/economic impact. People seem to be increasingly internalizing and accepting efforts prudentially required to slow down COVID-19s exponential infection rates. And hopefully we’ll converge even more from the poles of “barricade ourselves behind hoarded toilet paper” and “what me worry, I don’t see a problem yet” behaviour. However, given differences in, and evolution over time of,…
  Martin Pergler begins a conversation on corporate culture to identify the pros and cons of working for the corporate world, small business or the public sector.   Putting considerations such as the work itself, employer values, career trajectory, benefits, job security, etc. (all covered by others) aside, there is the elephant in the room. Inhabitants of the corporate world, small business (including startups), and the public sector are all fond of rolling their eyes — with a bit of…